Our friend Drew Gier, a Buffalo Bills season ticket holder and host of the Rockpile Report podcast chimes in on reports that the New York Jets are a leading contender to sign Saints EDGE rusher Trey Hendrickson:
I build this chart every offseason to compare pass rushers based on metrics & productivity vs cost, and to see trends in “sustainability” – that last part is what makes Hendrickson an interesting case.
Here’s why I chart the data I do: The Kyler Fackrell Effect
Fackrell had 10.5 sacks in his sophmore year, 1 year before he hit free agency. Bills fans were pounding the table for him. But if you looked at those #’s, he generated those on just 18 QB pressures – that’s an absurd conversion rate of pressures to sacks. It’s rare that production like that is truly sustainable, esp when said player leaves for a new team/system.
His career has gone on to illustrate what an outlier that was. So I started tracking “Pressure to Sack” conversion & “Snaps per Disruptive Play” for big names in free agency – over the last few years the trends that research ID’s has borne fruit more than it’s missed.
I pegged Hendrickson as “Do Not Want” almost immediately once I finished this in mid-February – maybe he’s one of the guys who proves the trend analysis/history wrong?
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