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2021 New York Jets Free Agency

Getting Trey Hendrickson Would Be A Flashy New York Jets Free Agency Move, But Does The Data Support Signing Him To A Big Contract?

Our friend Drew Gier, a Buffalo Bills season ticket holder and host of the Rockpile Report podcast chimes in on reports that the New York Jets are a leading contender to sign Saints EDGE rusher Trey Hendrickson:

I build this chart every offseason to compare pass rushers based on metrics & productivity vs cost, and to see trends in “sustainability” – that last part is what makes Hendrickson an interesting case.

Here’s why I chart the data I do: The Kyler Fackrell Effect

Fackrell had 10.5 sacks in his sophmore year, 1 year before he hit free agency. Bills fans were pounding the table for him. But if you looked at those #’s, he generated those on just 18 QB pressures – that’s an absurd conversion rate of pressures to sacks. It’s rare that production like that is truly sustainable, esp when said player leaves for a new team/system.

His career has gone on to illustrate what an outlier that was. So I started tracking “Pressure to Sack” conversion & “Snaps per Disruptive Play” for big names in free agency – over the last few years the trends that research ID’s has borne fruit more than it’s missed.

I pegged Hendrickson as “Do Not Want” almost immediately once I finished this in mid-February – maybe he’s one of the guys who proves the trend analysis/history wrong?
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Scott Mason is a 35 year New York Jets season ticket holder and the host of the daily New York Jets podcast "Play Like A Jet." Follow him on Twitter to discuss all things Gang Green @playlikeajet1 and subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Google, Stitcher, Spotify, and anywhere else you can download podcasts.


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