- Matchup: New York Jets (3-10) @ The Miami Dolphins (6-7)
- Date/Time: Sunday December 19, 2021, 1 PM
- TV: CBS
- Odds: Dolphins -9.5 (FanDuel), Total: 44.5 (FanDuel)
- Weather: Temp 80, Wind 10 MPH, Precip 60%
- Miami leads all-time series 56-55-1
Last Five Matchups
| Date | Result |
| 11/21/21 | Miami 24, @ Jets 17 |
| 11/29/20 | Miami 20, @ Jets 3 |
| 10/18/20 | @ Miami 24, Jets 0 |
| 12/8/19 | Miami 21, @ Jets 22 |
| 11/3/19 | @ Miami 26, Jets 18 |
Welcome to Miami
Any way you slice it last week was a disaster for the New York Jets. Zach Wilson finished the game 19 of 42 for 202 yards. The offense was unable to find the end zone even once. On defense, to quote Bart Scott, “They couldn’t stop a nose bleed.” The Saints had one player the Jets needed to stop Alvin Kamara, he finished the game with 120 rushing yards and a touchdown.
This week the Jets travel to Miami to take on a red hot Dolphins team, winners of five straight games. This run has saved the season for the Fins as they now have an outside shot at the playoffs after a 1-7 start to 2021. The Jets, hampered by injuries all season will get some weapons back with the return of running backs Michael Carter and Tevin Coleman in addition to pass rusher, Bryce Huff.
On the other side of the field, the Dolphins are dealing with Covid issues, as is much of the NFL. Miami head coach Brian Flores could be without leading receiver, rookie Jaylen Waddle. They could also be without rookie safety Jevon Holland, Holland has been a key piece during the Dolphins winning streak
Teams by the Numbers
| NEW YORK | RANK | STATS | MIAMI | RANK |
| 17.4 | 29TH | POINTS/GM | 19.5 | 25TH |
| 30.5 | 32ND | POINTS ALL./GM | 22.2 | 13TH |
| -16 | 31ST | TAKEAWAY DIFF. | 0 | 17TH |
| 237 | 15TH | PASSING YDS/GM | 230 | 16TH |
| 84 | 30TH | RUSH YDS/GM | 79 | 31ST |
| 254 | 27TH | DEF PASS YDS/GM | 254 | 28TH |
| 138 | 29TH | DEF RUSH YDS/GM | 103 | 8TH |
| 62.8 | 15TH | PLAYS/GM | 64.8 | 11TH |
| 65.6 | 26TH | OPP. PLAYS/GM | 66.0 | 28TH |
| -22.8% | 28TH | TEAM DVOA | -13.7% | 24TH |
| 15.6% | 32ND | DEF DVOA | -0.7% | 11TH |
| -8.7% | 24TH | OFF DVOA | -11.4% | 25TH |
| 38.4% | 22ND | 3RD DOWN CONVERSION % | 41.9% | 7TH |
| 47.6% | 20TH | 4TH DOWN CONVERSION % | 60.0% | 9TH |
| 22 | 23RD | RED ZONE TD | 23 | 20TH |
| 55.0% | 25TH | RED ZONE TD % | 65.5% | 13TH |
| 5.8 | 24TH | PLAYS/DRIVE | 6.1 | 13TH |
| OWN 26.7 | 30TH | AVG START FIELD POS. | OWN 29 | 10TH |
| 2:33 | 29TH | AVG TIME/DRIVE | 2:45 | 17TH |
| 113 | 23RD | BLITZ | 214 | 2ND |
| 24.1% | 18TH | BLITZ % | 38.1% | 2ND |
| 22.4% | 24TH | PRESSURE % | 26.5% | 7TH |
| 85 | 19TH | MISSED TACKLES | 90 | 9TH |
When the Jets have the ball
The Dolphins run a blitz-heavy defense and use a lot of cover zero. This aggressive scheme leaves zero deep defenders and pressures the quarterback in hopes to force a sack or a mistake. Miami has sent the blitz 214 times this season, a 38.1% blitz rate, second only to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was one of the reasons the Jets went with veteran Joe Flacco over Mike White in a Week 11 loss to these same Dolphins. Flacco was sacked just one time and had a passer rating of 79.9 when Miami brought the heat.
Wilson has not been good during his rookie campaign when blitzed. His 48.3 passer rating when teams blitz him has him ranked 38th out of 39 signal-callers who have taken at least 20% of dropbacks. Without his top two pass catchers, Wilson and the Jets could be in for a long and painful day in South Beach.
One way to beat a true cover zero, where the middle of the field is open, is to take shots downfield using post routes. Wilson will have to demonstrate the ability to throw with anticipation. With a heavy blitz in his face, he won’t have time to see the receivers open. The former BYU Couger has struggled mightily with this early in his career.
When the Dolphins have the ball
The Jets defense has not been able to stop anyone this season. Miami could be without several key contributors on offense but New York has an ability to make backups look like All-Pros (see Gardner Minshew). Rookie receiver Waddle has been all the Dolphins could ever have hoped for and more. He leads all rookies in receptions with 86 and is second in yards among that group with 849. Waddle is on the Covid list, he is vaccinated so there is a chance he could play if he has two consecutive negative tests by 4 pm Saturday. Losing Waddle would be a big blow for the Fins as their second-leading wide receiver DeVante Parker has just 30 catches.
Without Waddle, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will look to tight end Mike Gesicki, and with good reason. Gang Green has allowed seven touchdowns (8th most) and 829 yards (6th most) to opposing tight ends in 2021.
New York getting Huff back should help a pass rush that has been anemic in recent weeks. Out since week seven, Huff looks to feast on Football Outsiders’ 31st ranked offensive line.
The Dolphins average just 79.2 rushing yards per game, only the Houston Texan average less. In the Week 11 matchup between these two teams, Miami ran for 115 yards, their third-best total of the season.
Trends bettors need to know
- The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
- The Dolphins are 5-0-1 ATS in thier last six games.
- The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games folllowing a bye week.
- The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
- The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in thier last seven games in December.
- The under is 4-0 in the Jets last four games on grass.
- The under is 4-0 in the Dolphins last four games as a favorite.
- The under is 5-1 in the Dolphins last six games.
- The under is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head matchups between Dolphins and Jets.
Predictions
While the Jets get some weapons back and the Dolphins may be without a few, they haven’t proven that they can beat anyone at this point. Miami’s aggressive, blitzing style of defense is likely to give Wilson trouble. Final score 23-13.
